However, before you consider eliminating eggs from your shopping list, it’s essential to understand the situation before heading to the grocery store.
What is the effect of bird flu on egg prices?
A press release from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that more than 35 million egg-laying hens have perished due to the bird flu outbreak, affecting farms in 12 states. Over 100 million birds have been affected in nearly every state, with Louisiana being the only state currently reporting no cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). This outbreak has also been associated with raw milk, prompting the USDA to mandate testing of all raw milk for the virus.
Post Holdings, a food product corporation managing several smaller brands, announced that more than 12 percent of their egg supply would be affected in December and beyond due to the ongoing bird flu situation gripping farms nationwide. Previously, the company had reported losses in May from farms in Iowa and Minnesota amounting to another 14 percent.
One subsidiary of Post Holdings, Michael Foods, indicated that 4.5 million birds have died this year due to bird flu, significantly affecting their egg production. Contextually, in their 2023 earnings report, it was noted that eggs and egg products accounted for more than a third of total sales.
Experts consistently highlight that emerging strains of toughe…Bird flu has now started to impact cage-free and organic egg producers, a shift from its earlier focus solely on conventional, non-organic large-scale operations. In California, where legislation mandates that all shelled eggs sold must come from cage-free environments, egg prices have surged, nearly doubling amid a significant bird flu outbreak. This comes as more than 200 cage-free farms across the nation contribute to the egg supply. Notably, 40% of the eggs consumed in the U.S. are cage-free.
What is the projected increase in egg prices?
As of November 2024, the average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs reached $3.64, reflecting a steep 30% rise from October alone, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The possibility remains that prices could increase further, particularly if the population of egg-laying hens does not recover promptly, resulting in a shortage that drives the supply-demand curve upward.
Should consumers be concerned about bird flu in eggs?
There is no need to worry about bird flu contamination in eggs. The FDA, in collaboration with the USDA, conducted a risk assessment in 2010 which concluded that the transmission of HPAI, or bird flu, from eggs to humans is unlikely. Even if bacteria or viruses are present, eggs sold in stores are properly sanitized and stored at refrigeration temperatures, approximately 40°F, as per USDA guidelines.
Bryan Quoc Le, PhD, a food scientist, has advised that washing eggs at home is unnecessary since commercial processes use sterilizing agents that aren’t typically available for home use. Although washing eggs can be done, it may remove a protective coating that prevents spoilage at room temperature and also eliminates bacteria such as salmonella, making it advisable that the coating be kept until the eggs reach the consumer.
In summary, thanks to established food safety protocols, the likelihood of contracting bird flu through eggs purchased during regular grocery shopping is exceedingly low.
What steps should consumers take now?
Your best option may be to consider sourcing eggs from local farms instead of regular stores, whenever possible. However, elevated demand due to the holiday season and the ongoing bird flu situation means that egg prices will likely remain higher than usual. There are projections suggesting that prices might stabilize early next year as farms work on replenishing their egg-laying hens.
For those hesitant to pay the increased prices, numerous effective egg substitutes are available, such as chia seeds or tofu, which can be utilized in various dishes, including during holiday baking. Just ensure that any substitute you choose aligns with the texture and flavor requirements of the recipe; for instance, while applesauce is a wonderful replacement in cakes and baked goods, it may not work well in savory dishes like quiche.
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